[Baltimore Sun] Ravens vs. Buccaneers betting guide: Picks, predictions and odds for Week 7 matchup
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Ravens fans have to wait one extra day to see their favorite squad in action this week, as Baltimore (4-2) faces Tampa Bay (4-2) on “Monday Night Football.” The wait could be well worth it, as John Harbaugh’s team is favored to pick up its fifth consecutive win.
FanDuel lists Baltimore as a 3 1/2-point favorite over Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. It’s the sixth game out of seven this season in which the Ravens will enter the contest favored. The Ravens have only been the underdog once this year, entering the season opener as a small underdog against the Chiefs, who won, 27-20.
The Ravens have won four consecutive games, covering the spread in each of the four contests. Baltimore’s offense has led its recent charge, with the Ravens leading the NFL in offensive DVOA and yards per game.
What are the odds?
Baltimore enters the game as a short favorite, and the total is hovering around 50 points.
Spread: Ravens -3 1/2 points on FanDuel
Total: 49.5 points
Moneyline: Ravens -198, Buccaneers +168
Both Tampa Bay and Baltimore have performed well against the spread this season, as the Buccaneers are 4-2 and the Ravens are 3-2-1, according to Vegas Insider. Combined, the squads are 7-4-1 ATS this fall.
Each team’s games have skewed higher scoring, with nine of their 12 games this season going over the estimated point total.
Another shootout?
Tampa Bay is a good team, and wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should test Baltimore’s inconsistent secondary. Still, the Buccaneers have struggled at times defensively. They rank seventh-worst in the NFL in yards allowed per game, and they’ve had a few jarring defensive showings.
Kirk Cousins threw for over 500 yards in a Falcons win over the Bucs. The Lions posted 463 yards of offense in a narrow loss to Tampa Bay. Even the Saints — led by special teams magic — scored 27 points against Tampa Bay last weekend.
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Yet, most sportsbooks available in Maryland list Baltimore’s team total at 26.5 points for Monday’s game. Baltimore averages an NFL-best 453.7 yards per game and 29.5 points per game, which is third-best in the league. What makes the Ravens so dangerous offensively is the team’s array of playmakers. It starts with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, but running back Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing and wide receiver Zay Flowers is coming off consecutive 100-yard performances. Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews are both solid blocking tight ends with good hands, and Rashod Bateman is stepping up as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver. Even backup running back Justice Hill has flummoxed defenses with his receiving skills at times this season.
If you try to stop Henry and the running game (good luck), can you do so without weakening coverage on Flowers, Bateman and the tight ends? Baltimore seemingly has too many weapons to stop for a full 60 minutes, and the unit is orchestrated by a two-time NFL Most Valuable Player in Jackson.
The Buccaneers’ offensive playmakers are legitimate, too, though. Quarterback Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in passing touchdowns with 15, including a four-touchdown performance last week against New Orleans. Tampa Bay can hang in this game because of its offense, but the defense should yield plenty of points. I expect a high-scoring game, and I’m particularly bullish on Baltimore eclipsing 26.5 points against a defense ranked in the bottom five of the NFL in run defense and tackling, according to Pro Football Focus grades.
Best bet: Ravens over 26.5 points (-118 odds on DraftKings)
Have a news tip? Contact Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin.
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