[Baltimore Sun] Ravens vs. Browns scouting report for Week 8: Who has the edge?
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The Ravens painted another offensive masterpiece to beat the Buccaneers, 41-31. The Browns fell to the Bengals, 21-14, and lost their starting quarterback for the season.
Who will have the edge when these AFC North rivals meet Sunday afternoon in Cleveland?
Ravens passing game vs. Browns pass defense
As dominant as the Ravens are on the ground, it’s their remarkable passing efficiency that has them running away from the pack in offensive DVOA. Lamar Jackson was almost perfect on Monday night against Tampa Bay, completing 17 of 22 for 281 yards and five touchdowns. He’s headed for the best passing season of his career: completing 68.2%, on pace to throw for more than 4,000 yards and 36 touchdowns, leading the league in passer rating and second to the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen in ESPN’s QBR. Opponents have tried to crowd the box and rattle him with pressure over the last three weeks. Jackson has punished them with an improved screen game and by pinpointing downfield targets.
His top target, Zay Flowers, hurt his ankle and had a quiet game against the Buccaneers. No matter. Jackson simply turned to wide receivers Rashod Bateman (12 catches on 16 targets for 250 yards over his last three games) and tight end Mark Andrews (three touchdowns over his last two games). Running back Justice Hill again proved to be a great threat on those aforementioned screens, scoring on one and taking another 18 yards to set up a field goal. Jackson’s pass protection was uneven against Tampa Bay’s frequent blitzes. Rookie right tackle Roger Rosengarten allowed an early sack, but left tackle Ronnie Stanley played another superb game, allowing no pressures.
He’ll be a key player again in Cleveland, where the Browns’ pass defense will always be dangerous with Myles Garrett (four sacks, nine quarterback hits) and Za’Darius Smith rushing from the edges in coordinator Jim Schwartz’s tried-and-true schemes. Garrett, playing through Achilles and thigh pain, hasn’t been as dominant as usual but still grades as the No. 4 edge defender in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.
That said, the Browns aren’t what they were in 2023, when they ranked just behind the Ravens in DVOA against the pass. They have just one interception and have allowed 6.2 yards per attempt. Martin Emerson Jr. has graded as one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the league, and nickel back Greg Newsome II hasn’t been much better. Cleveland has blitzed on 35.7% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league. Will Schwartz risk that against Jackson, who has been so deadly against extra rushers?
EDGE: Ravens
Browns passing game vs. Ravens pass defense
Jameis Winston will get his chance to lift the Browns from the rubble after Deshaun Watson tore his Achilles and backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson injured his finger against the Bengals. Cleveland was a disaster under Watson, ranking last in pass DVOA by a wide margin. They rank 30th in yards per game and last in yards per attempt and already traded their No. 1 wide receiver, Amari Cooper, to Buffalo, seemingly signaling their acceptance of a lost season.
Jerry Jeudy was supposed to give Cleveland a dynamic No. 2, but he’s been merely decent, catching 21 of the 41 balls thrown his way for 266 yards and one touchdown. Tight end David Njoku has given the Ravens problems, and he appeared healthy (he missed three games with an ankle injury) against the Bengals, catching 10 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. Winston is five years removed from his last full year as a starter, and he has always been interception-prone (he threw 30 in 2019). Watson was often his own worst enemy, but the league-high 33 sacks he took also show that the Browns’ offensive line isn’t the stellar unit it was a few years ago.
Cleveland will look for a flicker of life against a Baltimore pass defense that’s still giving up far too many easy yards. The Ravens rank last in yards allowed, 28th in yards allowed per attempt and 18th in DVOA against the pass. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey was their saving grace against Tampa Bay, picking off Baker Mayfield twice to turn the tide, but he left before halftime with a knee injury. Humphrey has been the secondary’s top playmaker and coordinator Zach Orr’s top choice to cover slot receivers, so his absence — he did not practice Wednesday — would hurt. On the bright side, rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins played well against the Buccaneers coming off a pair of rough games, but he also did not practice Wednesday because of a shoulder injury.
If Njoku is the greatest threat in a toothless attack, it will be interesting to see whether Orr checks him with linebacker Roquan Smith, who been uneven in coverage this year, or safety Kyle Hamilton. The Ravens are tied for fourth in sacks despite blitzing on just 18.9% of dropbacks. Perhaps Orr will be more aggressive this week against a backup quarterback without a wide selection of dangerous targets. Save for a stretch of the third quarter during which they dropped Mayfield twice, Baltimore’s pass rushers didn’t make much impact against Tampa Bay’s quick-throwing attack.
EDGE: Ravens
READER POLL: How would you grade the Ravens’ season so far?
Ravens running game vs. Browns run defense
Tampa Bay actually outgained the league’s top rushing attack in the first half. By the end of the game, the Ravens held their usual crushing advantage: 244 yards to 125. They’ve outrushed every opponent this year by at least 100 yards. We’re running out of ways to illustrate their dominance with Jackson at the controls and Derrick Henry serving as the team’s closer (11 carries, 146 yards after halftime against the Buccaneers). The Ravens are on pace to blow past the all-time rushing record they set in 2019, and their 6.2 yards per attempt is a full yard ahead of the next most efficient ground game.
They’ll try to maintain their historic pace against a solid Cleveland run defense that ranks 16th in DVOA, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (54 tackles, seven for loss) is an elite run defender. Defensive tackle Shelby Harris is solid on the interior, and Garrett still makes plays from the edge. Washington, with a top running quarterback in Jayden Daniels, rolled for 215 yards against the Browns, which could hint at the problems Jackson will pose. Cleveland held the Ravens’ ground game in check last year (237 yards in two games) but did not have Henry to worry about.
EDGE: Ravens
Browns running game vs. Ravens run defense
Running back Nick Chubb’s return from the awful knee injury that ended his 2023 season provided a ray of hope for the Browns last weekend. The four-time Pro Bowl selection carried 11 times for 22 yards against Cincinnati, so he might still need several weeks to get up to speed. The Browns went with a backfield committee before Chubb’s return and rank 28th in rushing, 20th in yards per attempt. Again, this team’s blocking isn’t what it was a few years ago.
The Ravens have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game and per attempt, but the Buccaneers went at them more than any previous opponent and found some success with 125 yards on 30 carries. Their interior wall of Travis Jones, Michael Pierce and Nnamdi Madubuike wasn’t as dominant as usual, so perhaps the Browns will feel empowered to establish Chubb early. When opposing backs have gotten past the line of scrimmage, the Ravens, led by Hamilton and Smith, have done a good job preventing chunk gains.
Baltimore’s defensive line, including tackle Michael Pierce, helps the Ravens lead the NFL in rushing defense. (Karl Merton Ferron/Staff)
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens special teams vs. Browns special teams
Justin Tucker drilled a 52-yard field goal dead-center in the win over Tampa Bay and has not missed in his last four games. He seems to have worked past whatever technique issue plagued him on long attempts early in the season. With Deonte Harty on injured reserve, Chris Collier and Hill averaged 36 yards on a pair of kickoff returns against the Buccaneers. But the Ravens made the fourth quarter more interesting than it needed to be when they failed to field an onside kick for the second time this season. No other team has botched even one.
Cleveland’s troubles have extended to special teams. Kicker Dustin Hopkins has missed three field goals and two extra points. The Browns are averaging 23.4 yards per kickoff return and allowing 30.7. They’re also at a net negative on punt returns.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens intangibles vs. Browns intangibles
The Ravens have won five straight — three of those on the road — building supreme confidence that their offense will transcend defensive and special teams foibles. Jackson’s 7-4 record against the Browns falls below his career winning percentage, but he has played great games in Cleveland, including the memorable jog to the locker room and subsequent return in a 2020 victory. The Ravens, having played Monday night, will be at a rest disadvantage but will be motivated to move to 2-0 on the road in the AFC North.
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Cleveland is off to a nightmare start at 1-6, with reports swirling that several more starters could follow Cooper out the door in trades. The quarterback situation is a mess, the offense anemic. But Kevin Stefanski is a widely respected coach, and perhaps he will use Watson’s injury as a chance to reset.
EDGE: Ravens
Prediction
This matchup, pitting the league’s best offense against its worst, doesn’t feel complicated. Perhaps there’s some fear Cleveland will discover a spark with Winston in place of Watson at quarterback and Chubb in the backfield. The Browns still have notable defensive talent and seem unlikely to roll over against the Ravens, even if their season is lost. But no one has discovered a counter to the Jackson-Henry machine, and it’s hard to imagine a Cleveland offense that averages four yards per play keeping up. Ravens 31, Browns 17
Have a news tip? Contact Childs Walker at daviwalker@baltsun.com, 410-332-6893 and x.com/ChildsWalker.
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