[Baltimore Sun] Ravens vs. Broncos Week 9 betting guide: Picks, predictions and odds
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The Ravens return to action Sunday, hoping to move beyond last week’s disappointing loss to the Browns. Baltimore (5-3) welcomes a respectable Denver team (5-3) into town, and quarterback Lamar Jackson’s back and knee injuries add an interesting wrinkle to the AFC clash.
Coach John Harbaugh downplayed Jackson’s missed Wednesday practice, but if Jackson can’t play or is limited Sunday, it makes life a lot easier for Denver’s capable defense. The Broncos rank fifth in the NFL in defensive DVOA.
Even with Jackson absent from both Wednesday and Thursday practices, the Ravens are expected to cruise to a win over the Broncos, at least according to betting odds. Baltimore is a 9 1/2-point favorite over Denver as of Thursday evening on most sportsbooks legally available in Maryland, including FanDuel.
Baltimore shouldn’t take this game for granted, as the Ravens have lost twice this season as a favorite of a touchdown or more. Last week, Baltimore was a touchdown favorite over Cleveland, and the Ravens were 8 1/2-point favorites over Las Vegas in Week 2 and lost by a field goal.
What are the odds?
Given the Broncos’ defensive reputation — they’ve held six of their eight opponents under 20 points — the total for Sunday’s game is one of the lowest for a Ravens game this season. Here’s a quick glimpse at the odds:
Spread: Ravens -9 1/2
Total: 46.5 points
Moneyline: Ravens -450, Broncos +350
Baltimore is 4-3-1 against the spread, with seven of their eight games going over the point total. As for Sean Payton’s Denver team, it’s 6-2 against the spread. Five of the team’s eight games have gone over the point total.
Too many points?
I like the Ravens to win Sunday, but 9 1/2 points feels like too many. Those are often words uttered by delusional bettors on the verge of losing a wager, but I’m writing them anyway.
The spread makes sense on the surface, with Baltimore second in the NFL in DVOA and the game being played at M&T Bank Stadium. Still, Denver is 5-3 and hasn’t lost a game by more than seven points this season. The Broncos rank second in the NFL in pass coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. They rank eighth in rushing defense, per PFF, making them one of the few defenses in the NFL capable of slowing Baltimore’s high-powered offense.
And while Denver’s offense ranks a mediocre 24th overall in PFF’s rankings, Baltimore’s defense makes even the league’s crummiest offenses look dynamic. Even the lowly Browns scored 29 last week against Zach Orr’s unit. Denver might not win Sunday, but the Broncos have just enough offensive firepower and plenty of defensive star power to keep this game within 10 points, especially if Jackson is banged up.
Best bet: Broncos +9.5
Have a news tip? Contact Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin.
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