[Baltimore Sun] 5 questions the Orioles will face in David Rubenstein’s first offseason as owner
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The Orioles on Monday made their first major roster-related move of the offseason.
With five players possessing team options, the Orioles decided to exercise three of them ahead of Monday’s deadline. Four of those choices — to decline Eloy Jiménez’s option and exercise those for Ryan O’Hearn, Seranthony Domínguez and Cionel Pérez — were expected. The decision not to pick up Danny Coulombe’s $4 million option, however, was a surprise.
This offseason could bring even more of them.
The Orioles are in the middle of their World Series window, and now they have an owner in David Rubenstein who appears to be willing to spend money. As executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias approaches the offseason, he has holes to fill in his rotation and lineup as well as a bullpen to fortify in hopes of getting over the playoff hump.
Free agency officially began Monday at 5 p.m. and there are 99 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Here are five big questions the Orioles will face before then:
Do they bring back Anthony Santander and/or Corbin Burnes?
For the first time since December 2016, Anthony Santander is no longer an Oriole. Neither is Corbin Burnes, their ace for the 2024 season.
The club extended the qualifying offer — a one-year, $21.05 million contract — to the pair of players on Monday as expected, and they’ll both almost certainly decline it to explore free agency. That doesn’t mean they cannot sign one or both of them. Should they?
That, of course, might depend on the market and what other teams are willing to pay. Burnes is expected to receive a contract worth more than $200 million, while Santander’s could reach nine digits.
Either way, there are currently holes atop Baltimore’s rotation and in the middle of its lineup that need to be filled before next season begins. Whether they’re filled by the same men who occupied those spots in 2024 or by different players remains to be seen.
READER POLL: Should the Orioles re-sign Anthony Santander and/or Corbin Burnes?
How do they handle their arbitration-eligible players?
Last year, the Orioles tendered contracts to all 17 of their arbitration-eligible players. This year, they have 13 such players, and it shouldn’t be expected for them to bring all of them back ahead of the Nov. 22 deadline.
Most of those 13 players — such as Adley Rutschman, Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish — are locks to be tendered contracts. It’s less certain, however, for Jorge Mateo, Jacob Webb, Ramón Urías and Emmanuel Rivera, all of whom are due modest raises as they progress through the arbitration process.
The Orioles’ three most expensive arbitration-eligible players — Cedric Mullins (projected $8.7 million by MLB Trade Rumors), Ryan Mountcastle ($6.6 million) and Gregory Soto ($5.6 million) — are also expected back, but the larger financial commitments as they near free agency do raise questions about their futures in Baltimore.
If Elias believes there are better options on the market, he could decide to make a few surprise decisions with his arbitration-eligible players as he did with Coulombe on Monday.
What’s the future at first base and right field?
Rutschman is the Orioles’ future behind the plate. Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson are their future at second, third and shortstop. Colton Cowser is the future in either left field or center field, and Mullins is poised to again man center field in 2025 before potentially giving way to Cowser or a prospect in 2026 and beyond.
So, where does that leave first base and right field?
Those two spots are the biggest question marks for the Orioles this offseason and the future. Santander has left a 44-homer hole in right field. Heston Kjerstad could step up to fill in for Santander, but whether he’s defensively capable of being an everyday right fielder remains an unanswered question. For now, O’Hearn and Mountcastle are expected to continue platooning at first base, but Coby Mayo is also waiting in the wings and first base is the position Elias said he’s furthest along at defensively.
The different scenarios for what could be a busy Orioles offseason revolve around those two positions. Could Mountcastle be moved to make room for Mayo? If the Orioles sign Santander in free agency, is his future in right field, first base or designated hitter? How confident is the organization in Kjerstad’s future, and how does that factor into how it approaches the offseason?
The answers to these questions could determine whether Mountcastle and Santander are in the Orioles’ opening day lineup at first base and right field or if they’re both playing elsewhere.
Is Félix Bautista’s return enough to fortify their bullpen?
The Orioles will add perhaps baseball’s best closer this offseason, and it won’t cost them a penny.
After missing the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery, Bautista is set to return for the beginning of the 2025 campaign. If Bautista is the pitcher he was in 2023 when he struck out 46.4% of batters, it would be a shot in the arm for a bullpen that limped to the finish line last season.
But is that enough? Should the Orioles simply rely on Bautista being Superman again in 2025? Or should they prepare for the possibility that Bautista doesn’t return to form?
Even without Coulombe, a projection of the Orioles’ bullpen looks solid: Bautista, Yennier Cano, Domínguez, Pérez, Soto, Webb, Keegan Akin and Albert Suárez. But the depth on the 40-man roster is thin should injuries plague the club as they did in 2024.
How much money does David Rubenstein give Mike Elias? And will he spend it?
Elias said during his end-of-season news conference that he’s “pretty confident” the Orioles’ payroll will be higher in 2025 than the $95.3 million it was in 2024 when Baltimore ranked 26th of 30 MLB teams.
Elias didn’t make any guarantees, and he maintained that every move he makes will be focused on improving the Orioles, not on simply boosting payroll. But this offseason could be Baltimore’s busiest since well before the John Angelos era, during which Elias didn’t sign a single free agent to a multiyear contract in six offseasons.
While it’s unlikely they bring them both back, the Orioles could be in the market to bring back Burnes and Santander. The Orioles won’t spend like the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, but it’s within their range of outcomes to sign multiple well-known free agents this offseason. Starting pitchers Blake Snell and Max Fried, a pair of left-handers expected to receive nine-figure deals, could also be on the table. Even moderate starters like Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea and Nathan Eovaldi, if signed by Baltimore, would be given multiyear deals worth tens of millions of dollars.
In an interview with NPR last month, Rubenstein, 75, said he wants to “speed up the effort to get a World Series” because of his age. In his first offseason as Orioles owner, it will be revealed just how fast he wants to move.
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Tim Schwartz at timschwartz@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/timschwartz13.
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