[Baltimore Sun] Orioles arbitration FAQ: What you need to know about looming decisions
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In most years during the Mike Elias era, next week’s deadline featured the first big decisions of the Orioles’ offseason.
That’s not the case this offseason — the first of many ways this winter could be different for the Orioles under new owner David Rubenstein. Last week, Elias and company made decisions on the club’s five players with team options and handed out qualifying offers to two of their free agents.
The next big item on the checklist arrives next week with Friday’s arbitration tender deadline, and it’s one that could shape how the rest of the offseason plays out.
Here’s what you need to know.
What is arbitration?
It is a pay raise system for players who have established themselves as big leaguers but have yet to spend enough time in the major leagues to become free agents.
Eligible players are ones who have at least three years of MLB service time but fewer than the six necessary to become a free agent. The only exceptions are for players who already have a set salary through a guaranteed contract, such as left-handed reliever Cionel Pérez, whose $2.2 million team option was picked up by the club last week.
Service time is calculated by regular-season days spent on a major league roster (or injured list). One year of service is equal to 172 days. For example, a player who debuts on opening day 2025 would become a free agent after the 2030 season if he remains on an MLB roster the entire time.
For most players, they are paid league minimum ($760,000 in 2025) for their first three seasons and then receive pay raises through arbitration for each of their next three seasons before becoming free agents.
How does the process work?
Before Friday’s deadline, teams will decide whether to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. This does not mean they’ve agreed to a 2025 salary yet, but rather the club has agreed to keep the player under contract for the 2025 season. Any players who are non-tendered become free agents.
The main reason a player is non-tendered is because the salary they’d garner through arbitration is higher than what the club wants to pay them, and the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement before the deadline.
After Friday’s deadline, teams and their tendered players have until Jan. 9 to come to an agreement on a 2025 salary. If they’re unable to do so, the sides will exchange proposed salary figures for the player. If the team and player remain at an impasse, a panel of arbitrators will hold a hearing and pick one of the two suggested salary figures. No other contract value can be chosen by the arbitrators. Hearings typically take place in February.
Which Orioles are eligible for arbitration? And how much will they earn?
Last year, the Orioles had 17 arbitration-eligible players and tendered contracts to each one. MLB Trade Rumors estimated that was the most of any team, and Baltimore again is near the top of that list this offseason with 13.
Outfielder Cedric Mullins is entering his last year of arbitration. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle has two more arbitration seasons before he hits free agency. Catcher Adley Rutschman is going into his first year of arbitration.
If the 13 eligible Orioles are all tendered contracts, they would receive approximately $48 million collectively, based on projections by MLB Trade Rumors. Mullins’ projected salary of $8.7 million — up from $6.3 million in 2024 — leads the way given he’s further along in the process, while starting pitcher Dean Kremer (projected $3.5 million) and Rutschman (projected $5.8 million) will receive much more than league minimum.
While Baltimore’s payroll is expected to be higher in 2025, it won’t be because of the raises through arbitration. The projected $48 million salary represents significant upticks for the individual players, but it’s about $20 million less than what the Orioles spent on such players in 2024. Last year, most of the club’s largest salaries were for arbitration-eligible players no longer with the organization: Ace Corbin Burnes ($15.6 million), outfielder Anthony Santander ($11.7 million), Austin Hays ($6.3 million) and John Means ($3.3 million).
Here’s a full list of the Orioles’ arbitration-eligible players with salary projections from MLB Trade Rumors:
- Outfielder Cedric Mullins ($8.7 million)
- First baseman Ryan Mountcastle ($6.6 million)
- Catcher Adley Rutschman ($5.8 million)
- Left-hander Gregory Soto ($5.6 million)
- Right-hander Dean Kremer ($3.5 million)
- Infielder Jorge Mateo ($3.2 million)
- Infielder Ramón Urías ($3.1 million)
- Left-hander Trevor Rogers ($2.8 million)
- Right-hander Kyle Bradish ($2.1 million)
- Right-hander Tyler Wells ($2.1 million)
- Right-hander Jacob Webb ($1.7 million)
- Left-hander Keegan Akin ($1.4 million)
- Infielder Emmanuel Rivera ($1.4 million)
Who is a lock to be tendered? Who could get non-tendered?
For most of those 13 players, tendering contracts to them is merely a procedural move that is guaranteed to happen. For a few others, it’s less certain.
Players such as Rutschman, Kremer and Bradish are locks to be tendered contracts. So are Akin and Rogers. While Mountcastle’s future in Baltimore is less secure, it’s extremely likely he’s tendered a contract for what would amount to be a modest salary of approximately $6.6 million. Wells is recovering from elbow surgery, but his success in the big leagues would make it a Danny Coulombe-level surprise if he’s non-tendered. And Soto, while expected to make north of $5 million in 2025, is expected to be kept after the Orioles gave up two solid prospects for him at the deadline.
It’s a bit murky, however, for Mateo, Webb, Urías and Rivera — players who aren’t instrumental to the Orioles’ 2025 roster. Mateo, Webb and Rivera aren’t expected to be opening day starters despite playing key roles on the 2024 club, and Webb is coming off a season in which he dealt with an elbow injury. The Orioles need both infield and bullpen depth, but it’s possible one or more of these players are non-tendered as Baltimore prepares for a more active offseason on the free-agent market.
Most of these decisions will likely come down to next week’s deadline, though it’s possible some players agree to lesser deals beforehand to avoid being non-tendered.
Have a news tip? Contact Jacob Calvin Meyer at jameyer@baltsun.com, 667-942-3337 and x.com/JCalvinMeyer.
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