[Baltimore Sun] Ravens vs. Chargers Week 12 betting guide: Picks, predictions and odds
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All eyes will be on Los Angeles when two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks — Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert — square off on “Monday Night Football.” The clash of AFC contenders in prime time is an intriguing matchup on its own, but the additional storyline of John Harbaugh coaching against his brother, Jim, for the first time since a 2012 Super Bowl showdown surely has ESPN executives excited.
Familial storylines might partially cloak the importance of the game for both sides, at least in national media discussions. For Baltimore, the Ravens could use a win to stay in the AFC North race and not lose potential playoff-seeding ground to teams like the Chiefs and Bills. The Ravens’ current projected Super Bowl path would include road games with Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Kansas City.
For the Chargers, a win would validate the team’s early success in Year 1 of Jim Harbaugh’s tenure. They’ve dominated lesser competition but looked slower against the NFL’s elite. Are the Chargers a Super Bowl threat or just a solid team destined for a quick postseason exit? We’ll learn more about the eventual answer to that question Monday.
“It’s another opportunity to go play football and to show the world what we’re able to do,” Herbert said this week.
What are the odds?
Much like the spread of the Ravens-49ers Super Bowl clash in the 2012 season between the Harbaugh brothers, the betting spread separates the teams by a field goal. The underdog Ravens won that matchup, but this time around it’s John Harbaugh’s team that’s favored.
- Spread: Ravens -3 (FanDuel)
- Total: 50.5 points
- Moneyline: Ravens -152, Chargers +128
On the season, the Chargers are 7-2-1 against the spread, one of the best records in the NFL. Jim Harbaugh isn’t content with his team’s overall record, though, citing what his former college coaches used to tell him about handling success at this week’s media availability.
“When people are giving you accolades and compliments and telling you you’ve arrived, kick them in the shins,” Jim Harbaugh said. “You kick them right in the shins. That’s what you do.”
The Ravens are 5-5-1 against the spread. Baltimore games have often gone over the projected point total — that’s what happens when a team has a Most Valuable Player candidate at quarterback coupled with a porous secondary — while the Chargers live in low-scoring games. Nine of Baltimore’s 11 games have resulted in over bets winning, but just three of Los Angeles’ 10 games went over the total.
Chargers struggle against top competition
The Chargers have dominated lesser competition this season, going 6-0 against teams .500 or below and just 1-3 against opponents with winning records. The Chiefs beat the Chargers, 17-10, despite spotting Los Angeles a 10-0 first-quarter lead. Pittsburgh also trailed Los Angeles, 10-7, at halftime before scoring the final 13 points of the game.
Baltimore ranks second in the NFL in DVOA and ESPN’s Football Power Index. Advanced metrics love the Ravens, suggesting they’re the AFC’s top team despite sitting at 7-4 on the season. Only the Detroit Lions rank higher in DVOA and FPI.
While the Ravens have inexplicable defeats to the Raiders and Browns, they’ve looked good when playing the best teams in the NFL. Baltimore beat the Bills, 35-10, and owns a 31-point win over the Broncos. The Ravens beat the Commanders by seven and suffered one-score losses to the Chiefs and Steelers in games that featured 19 combined Baltimore penalties.
If Baltimore avoids mind-numbing penalties, the Ravens have a few matchup advantages that should lead to a win. Among the edges for Baltimore is the Chargers’ defense against athletic quarterbacks. Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Will Levis and Joe Burrow all averaged over 10 yards per rush against Los Angeles, with Nix and Murray both rushing for over 60 yards on just six carries each.
Jackson should find running lanes Monday, even if he only runs a handful of times. Player props for the games aren’t out as of Thursday afternoon, but it’s worth looking at Jackson’s projected rushing total and touchdown props. He hasn’t reached the end zone rushing since late September. Don’t be surprised if that changes Monday night.
It’s hard to bet against Jackson in prime time.
Best bet: Ravens -2.5 (DraftKings)
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin.
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