[Baltimore Sun] Record bird flu outbreak keeps egg prices high heading into holidays
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The cost of a grocery store staple has continued to get more expensive and gotten harder to find in some parts of the country due to continued troubles with an avian flu outbreak that has lingered for three years.
Eggs, which are more in demand during the holidays as families do holiday-related baking and cooking, have seen prices remain high despite inflation receding in other parts of the economy and at the grocery store.
The main issue has been a nagging outbreak of avian flu that farmers and health officials have had trouble containing due to its ability to mutate and infect animals. It started in early 2022 and has infected more than 100 million birds over the last two years, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Bird flu outbreaks have led to fewer numbers of hens from the nation’s farmers, resulting in fewer eggs on the shelves and higher prices for what makes it there. The average price for a dozen large eggs was $3.37 in October, a 30.4% increase compared to a year ago for a household staple that is even more in demand for baking as the holidays near, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Egg prices have been a trouble spot for food prices while other costs at the grocery store have moderated as inflation as a whole has nearly returned to normal levels of 2% year-over-year. Food prices have increased just 2.1% over the past year, according to the latest consumer price index.
“It hits egg farms and has cut egg layer chicken supplies, which cuts our egg supplies, and leads to higher prices,” said David Anderson, a professor and extension economist for livestock and food marketing at Texas A&M University. “In 2015 we had it and it went away, but in 2022 it came back, and it’s still with us. Here we are in ‘24, and this continual drip, drip, drip of occurrences, I think, leads to probably us thinking about this being worse than the last one, simply because it’s going on for so long.”
The USDA said it is expecting the price of eggs to continue increasing for the rest of the year and into early 2025. Egg production is down 2.6% year-over-year as of last month and it is expected to stay lower as farmers try to rebuild flocks that have been cut by bird flu. The USDA is projecting a 1% decline in total production in 2024 compared to 2023.
It pointed to losses in 2.8 million egg layers in Utah, Washington and Oregon as a contributing factor to the reduction in production projections. More than 108 million birds have been infected by the highly pathogenic avian influenza since 2022, making it the deadliest outbreak of the disease in history.
Bird flu typically spreads the most in fall and spring when wild birds like ducks and geese migrate for the seasons and carry it between farms or backyards, infecting flocks and livestock. The outbreak has been particularly bad partially due to some changes in migration patterns, with more birds moving through the West and infecting flocks there instead of containing the spread to the Midwest.
The egg industry has also been hit by inflation that has impacted all areas of the economy with higher prices for feed, transportation and other production costs that have gone up since the pandemic. Those costs have moderated with inflation nearly back to 2% on an annual basis but are likely to keep groceries more expensive.
While egg prices are higher than pre-pandemic levels, they are not expected to surge back to the record highs seen at the end of 2022 of $4.82, when the outbreak first started. But shoppers can expect to see prices remain elevated moving forward as they head to supermarkets to stock up for holiday dinners.
“We would probably need some more outbreaks to put another big dent in our egg-laying chicken supply to do that,” Anderson said. “Markets work, and high prices tell us to try to produce more chickens to lay more eggs. That also tells consumers to not buy as many eggs. We’re more attuned to these higher prices, and it may change some of our purchases.”
Have a news tip? Contact Austin Denean at atdenean@sbgtv.com or at x.com/austindenean. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.
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