[Baltimore Sun] Ranking the Orioles’ free agents from most to least likely to return in 2025
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James McCann described the emotions of the 2024 season’s final day as a “freight train.”
Shortly after the Orioles were swept out of the postseason, McCann and the rest of the Orioles’ players spent the next hour saying goodbye to teammates and coaches, hugging one another after the marathon that is an MLB season.
“One of the hardest parts” of being a baseball player, McCann said, is the uncertainty of the future.
“It doesn’t matter what team you are — whether you win the World Series or you don’t go to the postseason,” the veteran catcher said. “The team assembled on the last day of the season will never be the same team headed into spring training. … On top of losing a game and being upset about that, you’re saying goodbye to guys that you may never be teammates with again.”
That day might be the last time McCann — and several others — will ever be in the Orioles’ clubhouse. Two offseasons ago, the Orioles didn’t bring back veterans Jordan Lyles, Rougned Odor and Robinson Chirinos. Last offseason, none of the five Orioles players who hit free agency — Adam Frazier, Jack Flaherty, Kyle Gibson, Aaron Hicks and Shintaro Fujinami — returned in 2024. Could the same happen this offseason?
McCann is one of five Orioles players who will hit free agency five days after the World Series ends. Here’s who could return in 2025, ranked from most to least likely.
(Note: This does not include the Orioles’ five players who have team options for 2025: Eloy Jiménez, Seranthony Domínguez, Ryan O’Hearn, Cionel Pérez and Danny Coulombe. The team must decide whether to pick up their options within five days of the World Series ending.)
James McCann
His return would not be a surprise. In fact, to some, it’s expected — and he might be the only one on this list for which that is true.
The Orioles had enough confidence in McCann to start him in Game 1 of a playoff series. He’s respected in the clubhouse and by Baltimore’s brass. His services behind the plate were seemingly preferred when Corbin Burnes or Zach Eflin were on the mound.
McCann’s numbers don’t pop off the page. He hit .234 with a .667 OPS in 2024, starting mostly against left-handed pitchers, and he rates below average by the defensive metrics. However, his 94 OPS+ — which normalizes OPS across the league and adjusts for park factors — was his best in a full season since 2019 when he was an All-Star. That figure is still 6% below league average, but it’s quite formidable for a backup catcher.
Baltimore might only want McCann back on a one-year contract, so if another club wants to give McCann two years or more money, the Orioles could instead sign someone else or go with one of their internal options. Catcher Blake Hunt, who turns 26 in November, is on the 40-man roster, but he’s yet to make his MLB debut and he hit .179 with Triple-A Norfolk after the Orioles acquired him in a midseason trade.
Having a solid backup like McCann might be a luxury more than a need given catching prospect Samuel Basallo joined an exclusive group in 2024 by reaching Triple-A in his age-19 campaign. However, when Basallo does reach the majors, manager Brandon Hyde would want to get both his and Adley Rutschman’s bats in the lineup on a near-everyday basis. In that scenario, it could be valuable (and safer) to roster a third catcher.
John Means
This is the trickiest one on the list given the situation Means is in.
The left-hander returned from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery in September 2023 and was excellent for four starts. After missing the first month of 2024, he was good for another four starts as he hoped to make his case for a multiyear contract worth tens of millions of dollars in free agency. But Means’ elbow failed him again, as he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow and required a second Tommy John surgery in June.
The procedure carries a recovery timeline of roughly 12-to-18 months, meaning Means could return in the summer or not pitch at all in 2025. That increases the types of deals Means could sign.
Given he’s been effective every time he’s been healthy, a team could conceivably give him a cheap contract with the hope he returns down the stretch. He could also wait to sign in the summer, similar to what veteran Rich Hill did in 2023 when he agreed to a minor league deal with the contending Boston Red Sox in August. Or Means could focus on his recovery and wait to sign a deal next offseason, although at that point he might have to sign a minor league contract with a nonroster invite to spring training.
Baltimore is the only organization Means has known in his 11-year professional career. A return could make sense. But it’s also possible Means prefers to sign closer to his home in Kansas or doesn’t sign this offseason at all.
Austin Slater
Slater’s return might not be likely, but since it won’t cost much to bring him back, he’s ahead of a couple of big names on this list.
Slater’s two-month stint in Baltimore had its ups and downs as he hit .246 and slumped in September. His declining production (.530 OPS in 2024 versus a .774 OPS in 2022) and his age (32 in December) could make Slater a cheap option on a one-year deal — or perhaps a minor league contract with a nonroster invite to spring training.
It’s clear the Orioles want a right-handed hitting outfielder to pinch hit late in games, be a defensive replacement and platoon with the left-handed hitting Cedric Mullins. And the Orioles liked Slater enough to trade away Austin Hays, acquire Slater as his replacement and put him on their playoff roster.
Still, there are better options on the market who make more sense for the 2025 Orioles than Slater.
Anthony Santander
The market might determine whether Santander returns to Baltimore more than anything else.
It would be unwise for the Orioles to let Santander go without trying to re-sign him. He’s one of the best switch-hitters in baseball with 105 home runs since 2022. The 30-year-old is coming off a career year, an All-Star campaign in which he blasted 44 long balls — perfect timing ahead of reaching the open market. And his power bat was one of the few things working for the Orioles’ offense down the stretch.
However, the Orioles had years to sign Santander to an extension and either didn’t try to or couldn’t. Santander’s bat has been critical to Baltimore’s success the past three years, but his value is largely tied to his power. He has a career .307 on-base percentage, the metrics show he’s a below-average defender and he was worth just 2.9 wins above replacement (by Baseball-Reference’s estimation) in 2024.
But 44 jacks don’t come cheap, and a team might be willing to give Santander a nine-figure deal. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, a former MLB general manager, ranked Santander as this offseason’s No. 10 free agent — and the fourth-best position player — with a projected seven-year, $150 million contract. On those terms, perhaps the Orioles choose to spend their money elsewhere.
Other projections — like four years, $80 million — could be more in the Orioles’ range. It’s also possible Santander isn’t highly coveted on the open market, allowing him to potentially return to Baltimore on a team-friendly deal. Recently, hitters like Santander have not fared well in free agency. Josh Bell signed for $33 million over two years following the 2022 season, while Jorge Soler netted only $42 million across three years last offseason.
Corbin Burnes
With owner David Rubenstein at the helm, general manager Mike Elias might actually have the financial clout and interest to make a bold move like giving $200-plus million to a pitcher like Burnes. But that doesn’t mean he’s going to do it.
The Orioles traded for Burnes, who has been eager to hit free agency after he felt disrespected by the arbitration process with the Milwaukee Brewers, last February, and it was expected at the time that he would be a one-year rental. Burnes, who is represented by mega-agent Scott Boras, is considered the best starting pitcher on the market. His bona fides — a 2.94 ERA, four All-Star appearances and soon-to-be four top-eight Cy Young Award finishes — are why Bowden’s contract projection for Burnes is seven years, $247 million.
While it came under previous ownership, Elias did not sign a single free agent to a multiyear major league contract in any of his first six offseasons. It’s hard to imagine the pendulum swinging so far in the other direction that the Orioles would sign a single player for $35 million per year.
It’s also possible that Burnes, who grew up in California and lives in Arizona, prefers to sign with a team out West — or at least for a club that plays spring training in Arizona and not Florida. The Orioles could also go in a different direction to replace Burnes with another ace on the market, such as Max Fried and Blake Snell, two left-handers who will likely command contracts north of $100 million but much less than Burnes. Or Baltimore could shop for less expensive starters such as Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi or José Quintana.
Have a news tip? Contact Jacob Calvin Meyer at jameyer@baltsun.com, 667-942-3337 and x.com/JCalvinMeyer.
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