[Baltimore Sun] Orioles minor league report: 5 timelines for when Baltimore could promote Jackson Holliday
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Each hit, each highlight reel, each big box score from Jackson Holliday this spring will elicit the same question: When is he going to get “the call”?
When Holliday, the sport’s top prospect, joins the Orioles and makes his major league debut is one of the biggest unanswered questions facing the club. There is no way to know the answer, but there are several factors or hurdles for Holliday that could determine when he first plays in a big league game.
Here are five timelines — some specific, others more amorphous — for when Holliday could be promoted to Baltimore.
When he’s deemed ready
Keyword: deemed.
Holliday is ready to be a big leaguer, and the Orioles have already said as much. Manager Brandon Hyde said “it’s hard to say he doesn’t” look like a big leaguer after one of the 20-year-old’s many impressive performances this spring, and Elias spoke highly of the infielder at the end of camp.
But Elias said he is committed to doing what’s best for Holliday’s development, noting the organization’s positive “track record” with top prospects Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson quickly having success in the big leagues.
“I believe our capabilities are sound in this area,” Elias said.
Elias provided two areas they wanted to see improvement out of Holliday before bringing him up to be an everyday player. The Orioles didn’t want Holliday, a left-handed hitter, sitting against lefties in the majors, and his lack of experience and success off quality southpaws was one of the reasons Elias gave for keeping him in the minors. His position change to second base was another.
The Orioles determining that Holliday has checked those two boxes could come anytime this year — from sometime this month or in May or later.
“When we feel that he’s ready to impact the team in a complete and permanent way and not expose him to risk of failure that would involve us shrinking his role or sending him back down, we’re going to figure out a way to accommodate that,” Elias said.
Jackson Holliday had a strong spring training for the Orioles but did not make the team out of camp. (Mark Taylor/The Canadian Press via AP)
After April 13
Elias said service time didn’t play a role in his Holliday decision. He called service-time manipulation a “specter” and that it’s “unfortunate” it’s something that’s discussed.
There is no way to know how much — if at all — service time was a factor, but the economics of baseball are clear. If a team keeps a top prospect in the minors for a little more than two weeks, it can have that player for another year because of the way MLB calculates service time.
That date this season is April 13, meaning if the Orioles bring up Holliday on or after that date, they would likely get him for a seventh season — the 2030 campaign — before he hits free agency. The only way Holliday can combat this is by finishing in the top two of American League Rookie of the Year voting, gaining a full year of service for 2024, as Rutschman did in 2022.
Holliday being called up on or after April 13 doesn’t mean his reassignment was service-time manipulation. But him being promoted before that date would mean it wasn’t.
When there’s an injury
Last year, Grayson Rodriguez was reassigned to the minors after an up-and-down spring training, but he was the next man up in the rotation.
Kyle Bradish took a line drive off his leg in his first start of the season, and the club’s then-top pitching prospect was promoted to make his first start. There is no way to predict an injury, but the same could happen for Holliday.
If an injury befalls an Orioles middle infielder, it could lead to Holliday making his way north. Elias didn’t say one way or the other when asked at the end of camp whether Holliday would be the next man up on the infield.
“I think it’s very dependent on what we’re talking about in terms of vacancies,” he said.
Sometime in June
If the Orioles keep Holliday in the minors into June, it could raise questions about if they’re doing so for cost-saving purposes. This one is a little in the weeds, but it’s an important factor for how much young stars are paid before they reach free agency.
Here’s a quick refresher: Players don’t reach free agency until after playing for six years. MLB calculates a full year of service as 172 days on the active roster (or on MLB’s injured list), but the league calendar has 187 days. Players with more than three years but fewer than six years of service are eligible for arbitration, a pay-raise structure that increases each year.
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Within that system is Super Two status, under which a certain portion of players earn an additional year of arbitration eligibility based on their major league service time, potentially earning several million more dollars in the process. Among players with more than two years but under three years of service in any given year, those who rank in the top 22% in service time can hit arbitration a year early. For example, in 2023, the Super Two cutoff was 2 years, 118 days. Orioles players Tyler Wells and Ryan McKenna were over that threshold and hit arbitration early, while Dean Kremer narrowly missed out.
There’s no way to know what the cutoff will be in any given year, but the average Super Two cutoff over the past 15 years has been 2 years, 128 days, which would mean if Holliday were called up before May 27, he could gain an extra year of arbitration. However, the Super Two cutoff has fluctuated in recent years from as low as 2 years, 116 days to as high as 2 years, 145 days. That uncertainty is why some teams often wait into mid-to-late June before promoting certain prospects.
In late August
This is very unlikely, but if the Orioles want to ensure Holliday is rookie-eligible in 2025, they could wait until late August.
That’s what they did with Henderson in 2022, not promoting him until Aug. 31, which allowed him to play just enough to still be a rookie in 2023. That worked out for him and the Orioles. Henderson was named AL Rookie of the Year, and because he accrued a full year of service in 2024, the Orioles were awarded an additional first-round draft pick as part of MLB’s new prospect promotion incentive program.
Whether it’s in April, June or August, Holliday’s arrival in Baltimore is highly anticipated and could be a boost for a team hoping to repeat as AL East champions.
Tides tidings
Triple-A Norfolk opened its 2024 season this past weekend and put on an offensive show with 29 runs scored in three games. The best prospects in the lineup all had excellent performances to propel the club and make their cases to join the Orioles.
Holliday, Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers combined to go 27-for-68 (.397) with four home runs, six doubles and 22 RBIs. Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad are all top 100 prospects, while Norby is formerly one and Stowers spent time in Baltimore in each of the past two seasons.
Orioles prospect Coby Mayo fields a ball from third base during the Triple-A Norfolk Tides’ season opener on Friday. (Billy Schuerman/The Virginian-Pilot)
Farm files
The Orioles’ Double-A, High-A and Low-A affiliates released their break camp rosters Monday before they begin their seasons Friday. Here are players in the organization’s top 30, according to Baseball America, who are beginning the season at each affiliate.
Triple-A Norfolk: Infielders Jackson Holliday (No. 1 in organization/No. 1 in MLB), Coby Mayo (No. 3/No. 25) and Connor Norby (No. 6); outfielders Heston Kjerstad (No. 5/No. 41), Kyle Stowers (No. 16) and Hudson Haskin (No. 25); right-handers Chayce McDermott (No. 8) and Justin Armbruester (No. 22); and left-hander Cade Povich (No. 9).
Double-A Bowie: Catcher Samuel Basallo (No. 2/No. 10); outfielders Dylan Beavers (No. 11), Jud Fabian (No. 13) and John Rhodes (No. 26); infielders Max Wagner (No. 15) and Frederick Bencosme (No. 28); and right-handers Seth Johnson (No. 10), Trace Bright (No. 21), Alex Pham (No. 27) and Keagan Gillies (No. 30).
High-A Aberdeen: Outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. (No. 7); third baseman Mac Horvath (No. 17); right-handers Jackson Baumeister (No. 12) and Juan Nuñez (No. 20).
Low-A Delmarva: Left-hander Luis De León (No. 14) and outfielder Braylin Tavera (No. 18).
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